The Off-Balance Sheet Trap: When ABS Losses Come Home
Reading the Warnings in Auto ABS Before They Hit the Tape
Note: This newsletter contains information for educational purposes only, and the content below should not be considered financial advice to readers. We published a brand new short recommendation for our clients. If you would like to become our client, email laks@unicusresearch.com
Buried deep inside SEC filings, ALLY 0.00%↑ ‘s auto loan trusts are quietly signaling a credit unraveling.
Our analysis of an SEC data invisible to Bloomberg terminals and missed by rating agencies, reveals:
Vintage repo rates as high as 65.6%.1
Extension rates >95%, masking true delinquency.
Charge-offs lagging reality, despite rising losses at the trust level.
This isn’t a hypothetical forecast, it’s already happening, trust by trust. And yet, none of it is reflected in Ally’s 10-Q disclosures, analyst models, or equity market pricing.
In this overview report, we walk through the mechanics of how Ally’s off-balance sheet ABS structures are absorbing damage… and why that damage will eventually boomerang back to hit the income statement, funding costs, and shareholder returns.
For our clients, we are including repo and delinquency breakdowns by FICO, vintage, and vehicle brand, plus comparisons across issuers like Carvana and CarMax.
This is a sample overview with actual data.
If you care about credit cracks before they become crises, this is a must-read.