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The Unicus Investor
Why This Isn’t SVB… Yet
Pre-Mortem Brief

Why This Isn’t SVB… Yet

The FDIC just revealed $413 billion in hidden bond losses—$172 billion at the Big Four alone—plus surging CRE delinquencies that could trigger the next liquidity crunch.

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Unicus Research
Jul 16, 2025
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Note: This newsletter contains information for educational purposes only, and the content below should not be considered financial advice to readers. We published a brand new short recommendation for our clients. If you would like to become our client, email laks@unicusresearch.com.

America’s Banks Are Sitting on $413 Billion in Hidden Losses—And the Clock Is Ticking

SVB failed with over $1.8 billion in bond losses. Today, the FDIC reports that $413 billion remains outstanding across U.S. banks, with $172 billion held by the Big Four alone.

The FDIC’s Q1 2025 report confirmed what the Big Four hoped you wouldn’t notice:

  • $413 billion in unrealized bond losses still sit on U.S. bank balance sheets.

  • CRE delinquencies just hit 4.65%, the highest since 2014, concentrated at the largest banks.

  • Maturities? Not until 2029–2032. Liquidity? Trapped in low-yield bonds.

Add rising CRE stress and any liquidity squeeze could force bond sales, instantly turning paper losses into real capital hits.

In the full post:

  • How FDIC’s data shows temporary Q1 relief already reversed.

  • Why Bank of America is the most rate‑trapped.

  • The CRE-to-liquidity domino that could spark the next bank run.

  • Wells Fargo’s earnings reveal the first cracks in net interest margins.

  • Five charts exposing the hidden drag across the entire sector.

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